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Shooting from the hip - topical, informed and opinionated posts each & every day!



Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future, returns are before the application of Titan’s fees, tax legislation can change and you should always take independent advice in relation to your own financial circumstances.

Binary bets of the week: From No to Now What and Gold’s Time to Shine?

By Dave Evans of

From No To Now What?

After all the speculation and political heat generated, it seems financial and betting markets knew which way the wind was blowing. Financial markets are forward looking machines and it was no surprise to see Friday’s slump in the pound following the confirmation of the No vote in the independence referendum.

Markets had already priced in a rejection of independence, with some bookmakers paying out on the No vote as a publicity stunt. Sterling did spike higher immediately after a No vote was confirmed, but since then the pound has been floating with the tide.

That tide is firmly influenced by the gravitational pull of the US dollar. This week was had no surprises from the Fed, as it confirmed that it is still on a path of gradually but firmly bringing the US economy off life support with a slowing of Asset Purchases and interest rate rises on the horizon.

This week we’ve seen the yen pairs sprint to higher levels and since the start of August, there has been no point fighting the strength of the dollar bull, especially when looking at the USD/ JPY

USD/ JPY Daily Chart:

With the referendum decision now made, the British pound is now likely to drift with the general trend and until we see a significant move against the dollar, that trend is pointing down.

GBP/ USD daily chart:

A lower trade could be a good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the GBP/ USD will close below 1.6275 in 5 days time could return 161% if successful. Or put another way, betting that the GBP/ USD will close below 1.6275 on September 24th could return £27.54 from every £10 staked.

Gold’s Time To Shine?

The dollar’s strength is hard to ignore, but although listed against the dollar gold can have a life of its own. Sometimes described as an inflation hedge (not a very good one) and sometimes described as a disaster hedge (an inconsistent one!), gold ultimately will do what gold wants to do.

One exception is when you examine the spread between gold and its parabolic SAR. The chart below shows gold and compares it to times in the past where the spread has been increasing or decreasing. A large spread to the downside has regularly signalled at least a week long reversal in gold and this is what we’re looking at right now.

Gold daily chart

The chart above shows times in the past when the spread between gold and its Parabolic have reached extreme levels.

Despite the dollar strength, this indicator is flashing a buy signal once again.

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that gold will close ABOVE $1250 in 14 days time for a potential return of 386%. Or put another way, betting that gold will be higher than $1250 at the close on October 3rd could return £48.85 from a £10 stake.

Disclaimer: This financial market report is intended for educational and information purposes only. It should not be construed as investment or financial advice and you should not rely on any of its content to make or refrain from making any investment decisions. accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses incurred by users in their trading. Fixed odds trading may incur losses as well as gains.


Zak Mir covers Tate & Lyle, Mothercare, Tesco, Rare Earth Minerals, Lekoil, Amur Minerals and Audioboom on Tip TV

Zak Mir covers Tate & Lyle, Mothercare, Tesco, Rare Earth Minerals, Lekoil, Amur Minerals and Audioboom on Tip TV




Zak Mir Charts the Fund Managers. CF Woodford Equity Income: AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithkline, BAE Systems and Rolls Royce

A saying which I have invented and am hoping will go viral on the financial markets is “If you can’t beat them, copy them” - a variant on “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.” This is I suppose the basis of my series on the holdings of fund managers from a charting perspective.

The idea here is of course to be following in the footsteps of giants, and taking the view that however good they are from a fundamental perspective, their timing could be improved with a dose of technical analysis. That said, it would be difficult for anyone to beat the man currently regarded by many as the top fund manager in the UK, Neil Woodford.

What is interesting at his CF Woodford Equity Income fund is that at first glance the selection of stocks appears somewhat dull. In fact, it is probably the case that many might even class the mix of equities here as actually being somewhat boring. But of course boring is the magic word in fund management. The more conservative the manager and his style, the better he is perceived and in many cases the more funds under management.

Moving along to the top holdings in the Woodford fund and I have decided to go for two big pharmas and the two big aerospace & defence stocks.

AstraZeneca (AZN)

In the case of AstraZeneca (AZN) we will all be aware that the company has so far managed to see off tax inversion specialist Pfizer (PFE), although we perhaps wonder for how long. In terms of what we see on the daily chart the picture is that of a rising trend channel from April. The best call here is that the floor of the April channel is running through the 4,500p level, rendering most of August’s price action a bear trap. On this basis one would be looking for a top of April price channel target as high as 5,500p on a 1-2 month timeframe.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)

Not so chirpy is the present fundamental situation at GlaxoSmithkline (GSK) where the company has run into trouble in China in terms of being fined $490 million for “bribery” – otherwise known as ”for not being Chinese.”

From a technical perspective what can be said now is that we are looking at what could be the end of the recent breakdown for the shares. This started in March at 1,700p plus and ended with August’s dive below 1,400p. The position now is that the stock is backed by a rebound off the floor of the 2014 descending price channel at 1,400p. While above this level on an end of day close basis a return to the 200 day moving average zone at 1,571p could be on the cards over the next 4-6 weeks.

BAE Systems (BA.)

For BAE Systems (BA.) there has already been a 20% recovery from the April floor, but it would appear that there could still be further for the stock to squeeze on the upside. This idea stems from the way that there could be there could be momentum provided by the September bull flag breakout after a gap to the upside at the turn of the month. The expectation is that while there is no end of day close back below the floor of the February price channel / 20 day moving average, the upside here could be as great as the 2014 resistance line projection to 530p.

Rolls Royce (RR.)

Finally, we have Rolls Royce (RR.) where quite unbelievably even after the £1 billion share buyback announcement in June, there is a rather sickly feel to the price action. While we may be on guard for a snap back to the upside after the way over the past six months support largely above the 1,000p level, only a weekly close back above the March resistance line at 1,050p is likely to be a strong enough technical signal to convince most would be longs to press the buy button. The worst scenario on offer is that under 1,000p we head to the 2014 support line as low as 955p over the next 4- 6 weeks.



Zak Mir video blog on bulletin board heroes: Aminex, Bahamas Petroleum and Touchstone Gold


Spreadbet Magazine editor Zak Mir takes a look at the technical position of some of the bulletin board stocks of the moment amongst private investors.

Here are the key points from today’s video:

Aminex (AEX)

There is further upside seen despite all the recent gains.

The magnitude of the 2014 price channel suggests 3.5p plus could be achieved in 2-4 weeks.

The preferred stop loss is an end of day close back below the initial September resistance at 2.4p.

Bahamas Petroleum (BPC)

The shares have delivered a very healthy consolidation at and above the 50 day moving average at 2.3p.

There has been an impressive looking bull flag forming above the 50 day moving average to start this week.

The stop loss is an end of day close back below 2.3p ahead of a February price channel top target of 2.5p plus over the next 1-2 months.

Touchstone Gold (TGL)

There has been an extended base made by the shares at the floor of a December price channel towards 0.5p since May.

The rising trend channel from December backs Touchstone Gold towards 1.5p plus by the end of October.

The favoured stop loss is an end of day close back below the 200 day moving average at 0.6p.



The morning news update with Tesco, AG Barr and Cupid

FTSE 100

Meggitt (MGGT) - Meggitt Sensing Systems has been selected by Bell Helicopter, a Textron Inc company, to provide gearbox oil level monitoring and chip detection systems for the new 525 Relentless commercial super-medium helicopter. Meggitt estimates that the agreements will generate gross sales of more than $30 million over the production life of this helicopter, including original equipment, spares and repairs.

Tesco (TSCO) - Alan Stewart will join the Board as Chief Financial Officer with effect from 23 September 2014, rather than the previously announced date of 1 December 2014.

IMI (IMI) - Daniel Shook will be appointed as Finance Director to succeed Douglas Hurt who has decided to retire.

FTSE 250

Tate & Lyle (TATE) - Profits warning. Despite continuing good demand across Speciality Food Ingredients and a solid performance in Bulk Ingredients, significant operational and supply chain issues together with a lower SPLENDA Sucralose performance, now leads the firm to expect adjusted profit before tax for the first half to be in the range of £95 million to £105 million.

AG Barr (BAG) - Profit on ordinary activities before tax and exceptional items increased by 14.6% to £19 million in the six months to 27th July.

PZ Cussons (PZC) - performance during the period since 30th June has been in line with management expectations.

Small caps

Cupid (CUP) - posts a net loss of £2.36 million for the six months to June.

Crimson Tide (TIDE) - posts a pre-tax profit of £25,000 for the six months to June.

Starcom (STAR) - posts a loss of $557,000 for the six months to June.

Netcall (NET) - adjusted earnings per share increased by 10% to 2.81p in the year to June, net funds of £11.4 million at the period end.

Chaarat Gold (CGH) - has signed an agreement with NFC to complete the Definitive Feasibility Study for the Chaarat Project.  The work will be carried out by NFC’s affiliated design institute NERIN.