Caution: The Trump Bump Could Go Belly Up

The Probe


The Trump Bump Could Go Belly Up

It’s fascinating to follow the Robert Mueller investigation into Trump.

If Trump goes down, it wouldn’t be a case of schadenfreude, it would be uber schadenfreude.

Of course, any impeachment or indictment of The Donald is a long long way away.


Much Much More to Come

Even before the Grand Jury indictment, Paul Manafort’s dodgy dealings were well covered in the more serious side of the American press e.g. MSNBC, CNN, Washington Post etc.

Even Fox News had reported on Manafort.

Judging by what MSNBC, CNN, Washington Post etc. have been reporting for the last +6 months, there is still a lot more to come out on Manafort.


George Papadopoulos

It is even more interesting to see that George Papadopoulos has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about meetings with Russians.

Papadopoulos was also discussed in the Washington Post but he had mostly gone under the radar.

Of course, we do know that Papadopoulos was close enough to “candidate Trump” be part of his national security team. The Donald tweeted the image below on 1 April 2016.

George Papadopoulos on Donald Trump's 2016 National Security Team
George Papadopoulos: Third from the Left


What’s Next for the Russia Probe?

This means that Robert Mueller’s team has potentially got:

  • arrow_forwardA lot more on all the other shady dealings concerning Trump associates that we know about e.g. General Flynn, Rob Goldstone etc.
  • arrow_forwardMore on Jared Kushner, will Trump throw his son-in-law under a bus?
  • arrow_forwardMore under the radar people like Papadopoulos
If you want to keep an eye on this then try MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on youtube.

Rachel Maddow clearly loves looking into Trump’s shenanigans but she also seems a bit more balanced and fair with her investigative reporting.


Be Careful with Trump Bump

The markets keep printing record highs and much of this is on good-to-great corporate earnings. E.g. the recent Q3 2017 Google, Facebook and Amazon earnings.

At the same time, the markets are expecting Trump to push through:

  • arrow_forward“tax reforms” – aka tax cuts for the very very wealthy
  • arrow_forwardLess red tape for Wall Street
  • arrow_forwardRules allowing US Corporates to bring overseas profits into the US without paying the rather penal 35% tax rate
All of this has helped fuel the “Trump Bump”.

warning If Trump gets into trouble with the Mueller investigation then the stock markets could get jittery and sell off.


Mike Pence?
Yes, Vice President Mike Pence could take over and put all those things in place.

In fact, he would probably spend less time of Twitter and more time getting Republicans to do something.

Assuming Pence is able to distance himself from Trump then it feels like the VP is more likely to get these things done.

Of course, judging by Maddow £ co., Pence has also told a few porkies.

Also, even if Pence becomes the President then it’s easy to see the stock market selling off first.

(Note – Mike Pence is one of those really strange hard-right Americans, e.g. as Governor of Indiana he oversaw new legislation requiring parents of a miscarried fetus to bury or cremate the fetus even if it’s 1 day into the gestation period… and you can’t donate an older fetus to science in the hope of learning something… but you can criminalise distraught expectant parents. For more see huffingtonpost.com.)

Also read Cut, Cut, Cut – The Stock Market Problem with Trump’s Tax Reforms.


AuthorAlex Turner

Senior Editor, SpreadBetMagazine

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