Will Theresa May Be Laughing Come 9 June 2017?
19 May 2017: Lib Dems Hammered (and not in a good way)
12 May 2017: Election Price UpdateNote – below we mostly use the Financial Spreads prices (but IG, CoreSpreads etc. also have markets).
If you are thinking of trading then shop around, the spread widths on Financial Spreads seem reasonable but you might find better prices elsewhere.
Political betting markets normally are pretty inefficient (and sometimes have wide spreads).
Above IG prices as of 9:30pm, 12 May 2017
11 May 2017: Warning – Check the Election Market DetailA warning for everyone wanting to buy IG’s Conservative Majority market (see screenshot above).
This is not a ‘seats’ based market.
The Conservative Majority market will either settle at 0 (no Conservative majority) or 100 (Conservative majority).
If you buy the market then your max upside is 3x your stake and the max downside is a cheeky 97x your stake.
5 May 2017: Election Price Update
FinancialSpreads prices as of 12:00pm, 5 May 2017
5 May 2017: Conservative Party Could Beat Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 Landslide WinThe results of last week’s local elections have given the Tories another boost.
Before the local elections, FinancialSpreads’s “Conservative seats” market was 388.5 – 392.5. As the results came out, the market moved about 10 seats higher to 398 – 402 seats.
The Labour party seats market dived, it dropped 10 seats from 160 – 164 to 150 – 154.
How to Calculate the Conservative Majority1) Find the mid-price of the sell-price and the buy-price.
|Lib Dem Seats||23.5||25.5||24.5|
|Total Opposition Seats||241.9||253.3||247.6|
2) The above mid-prices give an estimate of the Tories getting 400 seats and “Total Opposition” being 247.6 seats.
3) There are 650 seats in the UK Parliament so let’s say we round up a few missing seats from the average (mid-price) to non-Conservative parties, that gives the opposition 250 seats
4) It’s pretty simple maths from here. 400 Conservative seats – 250 opposition seats = a Conservative majority of 150 seats.
Maggie had a 144 seat majority in 1983.
Having said that, Theresa May is still some way off Tony Blair’s 1997 and 2001 majorities of 179 and 167 seats respectively.
Why Such a Big Lead for the Tories?I guess that’s what happens when: The above leaves a lot of room for the Conservatives even if Theresa May’s party is edging further to the right.
Political Betting Markets May Be a Little Frothy!Note that many people with spread betting accounts are male, 35-65 and live in the south-east. Their own personal bias could easily be pushing these markets a little higher than they should be.
Of course… if you think the prices are codswallop you could sell / trade accordingly! (but be very careful if you trade. Politics or not, spread betting is high risk.
For something with a fixed downside you could try a site like betfair.
Want More on Politics Betting?Take a look at Mike Smithson’s PoliticalBetting.com, it’s an excellent and unbiased site with pretty much daily coverage and plenty of poll updates.
Or just join Smithson’s +40,000 follows on Twitter.
Remember: Spread betting, CFDs and forex trading carry a high level of risk. You can lose more than your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.