Spread Betting Diary

Spread Betting Diary
Gender inequality – only women have handwriting this neat

Click here for the latest Dear Diary comments.

More Spread Betting Diary

24 July 2017: Where Did Warren Buffett Tell His Wife to Put Her Cash?

No, this isn’t one of our dad jokes.

I’ll give you a clue, his tip wasn’t financial spread betting.

But it was on one of the most popular spread betting markets…

See Warren Buffett’s Investment Advice To His Wife.

24 July 2017: What Are the Hedge Funds Trading?

The latest weekly US Government Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows what the big boy traders like hedge funds are doing and how their net positions have changed from week to week. Here are a few highlights.

Stock Market Positions – Hedge funds are still long but reducing net positions

  • trending_downThe funds held 3 long trades for every short trade on the S&P 500, i.e. they were 3:1 long in the last report. In the new report, they are just 3:2 long.

    They have also lightened positions on the Dow Jones, was 9:1 and now 7:1 long. 7:1 is still pretty long though.

Forex Positions – There were some large weekly moves against USD

  • trending_upAUD was 3:1 long, now 4:1. NZD was 7:2 long of USD, now 11:2.
  • trending_upWith all the negative Donald Trump news, it’s not a surprise to see big MXN trades vs USD. In the last report the big boys were 9:2 long of MXN, they’ve now increased to 15:2 long.
  • trending_downIt’s not all anti-USD. The big forex speculators are increasing JPY shorts. In the previous report they were 1:3.7 trades short, they are now 1:4.4 trades short of JPY.
  • trending_upA lot has been written about EUR/USD and GBP/USD but the COT is showing little weekly movement. The hedgies are still ~1.8:1 long of the euro.
  • trending_flatThere’s a nominal change for GBP/USD with traders reducing GBP shorts from 1:1.5 to 1:1.3.

Commodities Positions – Uninspiring
  • trending_upHedge funds are still 1.4:1 trades long of gold week-on-week.
  • trending_flatOther metals like silver, copper & platinum are uninspiring flat week-on-week at ~1:1.
  • trending_flatLikewise, there’s no real change with agricultures. There are still small longs on cocoa, coffee, sugar and wheat.

Trump Watch

And let’s hope the Miami Herald is right with this:

Robert Muller vs Donald Trump

Strong Euro & Little Expected From This Weeks’s FOMC Meeting

Below, a useful 7m:45s analysis from CMC Markets.

Looking at the week ahead, the euro remains buoyant and the dollar is still hobbled by the administration.

EUR/USD is approaching the 200 week moving average.

USD/CHF has already broken the 200 week moving average.

23 July 2017: Buying and Selling Spread Betting and CFD Websites

A little off topic and more of an industry piece, we have taken a look at: Buying & Selling: Spread Betting, CFD and Forex Domains and Websites.

21 July 2017: Brexit Update

  • trending_downThe BBC has reported that Michael Gove has said the “cabinet is united” over the need for a “transitional period” after Britain officially leaves the EU.

    Ergo… the cabinet is certainly not united…

  • trending_up BUY: Dublin Office Space

    We might be a little late on this but another big firm, Bank of America, has chosen Dublin for it’s EU hub.

    Time to look at going long of Dublin office space?

  • trending_downSome reading for the weekend… The Economist, which was always very pro-Remain, is pointing out a number of the issues with the divorce of an incredibly complicated 40 year relation between millions of people… and with laws written by many thousands of people.

    I want to look at the detail but it might be a bit too scary… please get me something to clean the sand out of my eyes.

21 July 2017: Contest Over as Forex Markets Ignore Draghi’s Euro Vision

A quick look at the markets… and it all boils down to a combination of the stronger euro vs both the weaker dollar and pound.
  • trending_upThe FTSE 100 strengthened yesterday on the back of a weak pound, the index closed strongly higher

  • trending_flatUS stock markets were pretty level for the day. To be fair, the S&P 500 was suffering after hitting a fresh all-time high on Wednesday.

    The US Tech 100, or NASDAQ 100 to you and me, managed a small gain and it’s 10th up day in a row – watch out for the big Google (Alphabet) earnings update next week.

  • trending_downUS crude oil is being sold below the $48/barrel level. Expect more resistance before we get anywhere close to $50/barrel.

  • trending_upGold has tested the 100-day moving average resistance at $1247. Concerns over all-things-Trump and lower risk appetite have helped the metal. Buyers should note the 50% retracement of the June – July decline at $1,250 and the major 61.8% retracement at $1,260.

Back to Forex and the Euro…

We’ve take a slightly longer here: Contest Over as Forex Markets Ignore Draghi’s Euro Vision.

20 July 2017… Draghi Day

The highlight today is the ECB / Mario Draghi press conference at 1.30pm. There could be some volatility around this.

Elsewhere, a few broker notes:

  • trending_upLCG on the FTSE 100: The index challenged the 50-day moving average at 7446 yesterday. If we see a weaker pound then the FTSE 100 could clear this moving average resistance and aim for 7500.

  • trending_upLCG on USDJPY: The Bank of Japan has kept its rate unchanged… Japanese inflation remains stubbornly low and the BoJ inflation target of 2% has been kicked down the road to… 2019.

    USDJPY has now retraced 50% of the June – July rise to ¥111.65. If we hold on to the gains then resistance at ¥112.85, i.e. the 200 day moving average, is the next target.

  • trending_downIG on GBPUSD: The unexpected bounce in UK retail sales has done little to help the pound.

    The GBPUSD chart is showing the market has now broken back below $1.30. Today’s high street data was just an improvement on last month’s very poor numbers and the markets don’t seem convinced that UK inflation has peaked.

  • trending_downIG on Crude Oil: Interesting 10 minute video on how oil demand is increasing but supply is still flooding the market – see crude oil market update.

“ECB Dick Tatorship”

To honour #ECB day, let’s not forget this Mario Draghi classic.

And the t-shirt? It says… “ECB Dick Tatorship” (sic).

They probably don’t sell many of those on Amazon

Were there more paparazzi and security?

Super Mario

19 July 2017: Ex-Unicorns Running Amok

The NADAQ 100 chart hit another record high yesterday with Netflix reporting good Q2 numbers.

Helping the US tech index is the Facebook share price which also posted a new record high – investors have been piling in ahead of next week’s earnings data.

Trading Unicorns…

In a somewhat timely manner, we’ve added a look at Unicorns, Dead, Alive and Valuation Problems.

19 July 2017: Bank Jobs, Magic and Gross Incompetence

A quick update from Michael Hewson at CMC Markets:
  • trending_downThe DAX saw its biggest 1 day loss in nearly 3 weeks
  • trending_upWith a weak dollar, ECB president Draghi needs to work the magic again at tomorrows’ ECB rate meeting in order keep the euro from getting too strong. If EUR/USD breaks $1.1620 then a move to test $1.2000 could be on.
The US administration appears to be undermining the dollar at every possible opportunity with what can only be described as either gross incompetence or sheer stupidity.

It looks like the US government is giving the UK government a run for its money in the incompetence stakes. It doesn’t help that neither the UK or the US has a capable opposition.
  • trending_downUS bank stocks have taken a hit after Goldman Sachs reported a 40% revenue drop in its investment banking division. JP Morgan announced a similar story last week.
And a comment from LCG:

  • warningWarning: GBP/USD is consolidating above $1.30 but there is a warning over some large call options being exercised on Thursday. See GBP/USD update.

18 July 2017: Trump Administration is Hurting the Dollar

Drain the Swamp
Somehow… “Drain the Swamp” seems to be getting ever more pertinent…

Looking around the markets, there’s good deal of negative opinion regarding the Trump administration’s ability to get anything done.

We’ve added a roundup of the views here: Why the Trump Administration is Hurting the US Dollar.

It’s not all one way though, LCG are saying “Traders of USD/JPY should be seeking dip buying opportunities as soon as the USD sell-off loses momentum”. Read more.

Elsewhere, according to Michael Hewson at CMC Markets:

“Whatever Carney says today, his views on interest rate policy seem to change as often as the weather forecast, and tend to be about as reliable

“We could see sterling hit $1.3300 in the coming weeks, irrespective of what the Bank of England does, or does not do.”

18 July 2017: The Netflix Express… Next Stop?

The Netflix shares have surged +10% after hitting 104m subscribers.

And the Netflix chart is looking like a freight train…

Choo choo!

warning Warning!… The NFLX stock also looks very overpriced.

18 July 2017: Time to Short UK PLC…?

An apt tweet from Alberto Gallo‏ @macrocredit on the Brexit negotiations.

“EU Team: 100 pages of documents”
“Brexit Team: big smiles”

Brexit Negotiations

17 July 2017: A Number of Markets at Interesting Levels

Update from LCG:
  • trending_flatEUR/USD is trading just shy of $1.15 but there is solid resistance at this level.

  • trending_upAUD/USD has hit US$0.7836, i.e. highest level in more than a year. Carry traders are firmly in charge of the pair.

  • trending_upGold has recovered to hit the 200 day moving average a around $1,230. The next upside targets are at $1,239, i.e. the major 38.2% retracement of the June-July decline. After that, expect resistance at $1,247 and $1,250.

17 July 2017: GBP/USD Clears Critical Fibonacci Resistance at $1.3045

  • starLCG: “GBP/USD has finally cleared Fibonacci resistance at $1.3045, i.e. the major 38.2% retracement off the post-Brexit sell-off.”

  • star_halfCMC: “Sterling had a solid week last week, helped by a rebound in wages and the UK unemployment rate hitting a 42 year low.

    “Cable now faces another key week after breaking above the $1.3100 mark for the first time since September 2016. Watch out for UK inflation data tomorrow as well as a speech from BoE governor Mark Carney.”

14 July 2017: “You are Fucking with Me Now… Watch Your Back, Bitch”

Here we go again, off the topic of trading and back to the addictive soap opera at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Kevin Spacey has commented on how the current administration puts House of Cards to shame. Sadly, that’s true.

Here’s the latest twist from Team Trump…

Marc Kasowitz, Donald’s personal attorney on the Russia mess, has sent a string of somewhat sweary and threatening emails, TheGuardian.com: Trump lawyer to apologize for sending expletive-filled emails to stranger

(I know the reporter for The Guardian is based in the US but no need to spell ‘apologise’ incorrectly).

14 July 2017: You’re in Such Good Shape

Still watching the soap opera and…

I don’t want to put anyone off their Friday lunchtime pint but… I need you to share my pain… sorry.

Also see more stupid Donald Trump videos.

The Spread Betting Diary

A lot of trading diaries are based on fictitious wins or worse. Our spread betting diary is different, we just give a quick personal view of the markets and political world.

Please read the footer of our website re: “SpreadBetMagazine.com does not constitute investment advice etc.”



AuthorAlex Turner

Senior Editor, SpreadBetMagazine