Why the Alabama State Election is Important for the Spread Betting Markets

The Moore the Merrier? Not This Time

WTF?! Democrats Win in Alabama?

Democrat Doug Jones has defeated Roy Moore in the vote for the Alabama Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions.

It’s the first time that Democrats have won a Senate seat in Alabama for 25 years.

Roy Moore is a massively flawed awful person, see our view… and his words… The Moore the Merrier? Not This Time.

The vote isn’t 100% clear yet though. Roy Moore isn’t conceding.

With all voted counted, Jones won with 49.9% of the vote and Moore got 48.4%.

While Roy Moore has the option to contest the close vote, interestingly, even Trump tweeted something normal:
Trump Tweet to Doug Jones

How did a Democrat win in Alabama? It’s probably a mix of shocking candidate and an increasingly large anti-Trump vote.
Republican Family Values?

Anti-Trump Voting?

If it is a growing anti-Trump then that doesn’t bode well for the November 2018 Senate elections where many states are not as pro-Republican as Alabama.

And let’s not forget that in November 2017, the Democrats scored big state-wide wins in Virginia and New Jersey.

Why is the Vote Important for the Markets?

Assuming Doug Jones is confirmed, the vote reduces the Republican’s Senate majority to 51-49. Mike Pence, Vice-President, still gets a casting vote on 50-50 splits.

This makes it far more tricky for the Republicans to put through new legislation.

This isn’t just about Democrats, plenty of the extreme Republicans will see this weakness and also try to use it to their advantage (and slow things down).

And it’s easy to see a few Republicans wanting to distance themselves from The Donald.

US Tax “Reform” Could Still Pass

The markets haven’t reacted negatively yet. They are probably focussed on tonight’s FOMC meeting.

Also, Jeff Sessions was replaced by an interim senator, Luther Strange, and Strange is likely to remain in the seat until early January.

That could be enough time for the Republicans to push through the tax “reform”.

warning Nevertheless, if things drag on, expect the markets to get jittery.

AuthorAlex Turner

Senior Editor, SpreadBetMagazine

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