(Just a pretty picture, trading platforms don’t really look like this)
Dear Spread Betting Diary
19 August 2017: Quote of the Day“[Prices] are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling” – Jesse Livermore
18 August 2017: New Donald Trump CartoonsIt’s Friday and we’ve created a page of our favourite Donald Trump cartoons, images and memes.
If we’ve missed any good ones, please let us know.
18 August 2017: Caution Needed But Volatility Only Back to 2014-2016 LevelsJust in case you didn’t get the message from all the other market commentary about increased volatility, take a look at the VIX charts below.
The general level of volatility is increasing.
The high for 2017 was this time last week on 11 August. We have also seen a couple of other volatile days over the past week.
However, the weekly chart below puts things to perspective. The highs we’ve seen over the last week were pretty typical for much of 2014-2016.
What Does This Mean for Your Spread Betting?Also see live VIX volatility chart.
Daily VIX Chart
Weekly VIX Chart
Volatility Back to 2014-2016 Levels
17 August 2017: Gold Breaks Long-Term Triangle PatternThis is interesting and worth a small trade.
Gold has broken the long-term triangle pattern that we’ve been discussing.
There could a $60 (600pt upside), see gold spread bet update.
Let’s Take a Break
17 August 2017: Twitter is Censoring Images, Memes and Tweets About TrumpThis afternoon @spreadbetmag put this meme on Twitter… but Twitter pulled it…
OK, he may not have said this out loud but banning a Trump meme? Deleting a little satire? Bizarre.
Some of my best friends…
OK, OK, OK. I made the meme above.
Fine. But then Twitter deleted by my next tweet which is just the latest cover of The Economist.
The tweet was just this and picture of the cover:
@realDonaldTrump please make sure you read the latest copy of the @TheEconomist – the cover should give you a clue what it’s about. #potus
Judging by this, they are going to be deleting a lot of tweets! (just not Donald’s).
Shame about Twitter deleting it. It’s a good cover, I look forward to reading it.
17 Aug 2017: Snap Spread Bets End on a WhimperAs expected, Snap gapped lower over the weekend but the speed of the rebound was very quick. I closed my last trade for a miserly profit.
The Snap chart has also broken my very wide channel.
Time to exit.
For more, see Snap inc trading update.
15 Aug 2017: The Foolish YankeesThe North Korea vs USA spat seems to be dying down a little.
It sounds like the adults (in this case China and hopefully General Kelly) have managed to rein in toddlers Jong-un and Trump.
Helping the markets is a new statement from North Korean state media. According to the BBC:
Although prepared for “the enveloping fire at Guam”, the North said it would watch what “the foolish Yankees” do before taking a decision.
The Most Foolish YankeeLater on today, in the US, we get the July retail sales data which could be interesting.
After April, May and June saw negative readings, another negative reading, or even just a lacklustre figure, could put a little more pressure on the White House.
The chief fool will be wanting to talk about his $1 trillion infrastructure plan.
Not surprisingly, the current plan is very light on detail and many Republican don’t like the idea of all that government spending.
Any positive messaging about infrastructure spending could be drowned out by the Charlottesville debacle.
Trump made such a mess of the condemning the KKK that when he finally did… it was too late for many people.
Merck’s Ken Frazier, Intel’s Brian Krzanich and Under Armour’s Kevin Plank have all left the President’s “American Manufacturing Council”. Hopefully he’s lost a few more supporter too.
Seriously… if you can’t even condemn the KKK what can you do?
71 years old and still fucking useless.
Whose wizard idea was it to put this idiot in charge?
14 August 2017: Snap’s Decline Has Been Pretty Textbook…but… I’ll also be exiting the Snap market soon.
We’ve had some nice profits but the unknowns are increasing.
There’s an update on my Snap spread bet here.
As many predicted, Snap saw a nasty gap lower on poor Q2 data.
14 Aug 2017: Trump Confirms He’s Still a DickDonald Trump has condemned “hatred, bigotry and violence on many sides” at white supremacy rally in Charlottesville. Eh?
Credit: The Whitest House by Ben Jennings, The Guardian
14 August 2017: Cut Your Trading Costs with a Rebate
Financial Spreads have started running a monthly rebate called “Trader Rebate”.
It looks like one of the more generous rebates on offer and, looking through the terms and conditions, there are no nasty withdrawal clauses.
Rebates are not the be-all and end-all but they can be useful for large or frequent traders.
InterTrader also run a monthly rebate.
We’ve added a new guide, see rebate guide for spread betting, forex and CFDs
11 August 2017: Snap, Crackle and Drop(Sorry, we must stop using Rice Krispies dad jokes.)
Well, well, well, last night’s Snap Inc Q2 2017 numbers were uninspiring to say the least.
Snap Q2 Highlights:
That doesn’t look like a $15bn company to me…
Also, I know we should leave emotions out of trading but who the f*** was religiously buying the stock at $13.50?
With the S&P 500 not accepting Snap, it’s not the big trackers. I hope it’s not my pension fund.
Whoever it was will be in trouble on the open at 2.30pm UK time.
Also see: Miserly Growth Not Helping Q2 2017 Numbers for Snap.
There’s an update on my Snap spread bet here.
11 August 2017: Volatility Has Increased But…Not by as much as some market commentary is making out:
11 August 2017: Weekly VIX Chart
Also see: VIX update and live VIX chart.
10 August 2017: Fold![8pm UK time] Piss! How is the Snap stock still stuck around the $13.50 level?
This is making me uneasy going into tonight’s earnings.
Closed £0.50/pt of my short of Snap @ $13.54 and taken a £50 loss on that. See Snap trade update.
Zombies of the Day[5pm UK time] Apart from some fun on the open the Snap share price has turned into a zombie and is just drawn to the $13.50 level… again.
Although I doubt that level will hold with tonight’s earnings report.
Talking of zombies… anyone seen or heard from the British Prime Minister…
Credit: New Statesman
10 August 2017: Snap, Crackle and Flop?Anyone following Spread Bet Magazine will know I’m bearish about Snap Inc.
The new company numbers are due after today’s close.
I’m concerned about good numbers and thinking of reducing my short trade.
Let’s take another look at those poor Snap Q1 2017 numbers.
5 Minute Chart for 9 August 2017
The average daily volume is 22m shares so that’s not easy to manipulate.
If this continues today then I’ll close or reduce my short before the Q2 earnings come out tonight. Read more.
10 August 2017: Battle of the Babies Boosts GoldGold gained $15 yesterday but there’s still no break of the long-term trend we’ve been watching.
Take a look at a great triangle pattern for gold.
(you’ve not missed out, it’s still a case of “no trade yet”).
10 August 2017: “I’m Not Gonna Have Time to Play Golf”So, The Donald is off on a 17 day “working vacation”.
Is that like “working from home”?
The spread bet on “Total Trump Golf Hours” by the Donald on his (cough) working vacation: 68-72 hours.
4 hours a day? I think that’s worth a small buy.
It would be a “big buy” but writing all those thought provoking tweets must take a lot of time, planning and consultation….
And never one to contradict himself, or just talk a lot of bullshit, here’s Donald’s view of playing golf if you’re the POTUS.
(Sorry, the Total Trump Golfing Hours spread betting market is a made up market – unless Paddy Power catch on).
9 August 2017: Hopefully It’s Just Idiots with Handbags
In recent days, it has become apparent that after 5 months of losses, the dollar could well be susceptible to some kind of rebound.
Yesterday’s price action seems to confirm that there are some weak short positions on the dollar.
Credit: Brian Adcock
7 August 2017: We Have a Big 7 Days for the Snap StockThe Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hour chart, below, suggests more selling but it’s more complex than that.
There was a solid bounce on Friday, there’s new company data due on Thursday and then more stock could hit the market a week today.
See Snap spread betting update.
Be careful with this one. Be very careful.
7 August 2017: Interesting Changes in Hedge Fund TradesThe weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report is showing how the big speculators, i.e. Hedge Fund type speculators, have changed their positions from week to week.
On SBM we like to take a simple look at the long:short trade ratio. I.e. are traders getting increasingly long or short of a market?
4 August 2017: Donald Trump and the NFP at 209,000That means:
4 August 2017: Grand Jury Time BabyIn honour of Robert Mueller, the special counsel investigating the Russian shenanigans with the US election, and hopefully also investigating all-things-Trump, we’ve added some of our favourite Donald Trump videos here.
4 August 2017: Changes to Open Spread Bets
4 August 2017: Warning – It’s Non-Farm Payrolls DayWatch out for volatility at 1.30pm (UK time).
If you are day trading, or just doing a range of very short-term speculative spread bets, then you may want to pause that from 1.25pm to 1.45pm… assuming the market has stopped spiking by 1.45pm.
3 August 2017: Hedge Funds Getting Longer of Gold?We’ve updated our view on gold with a little more support data on how the hedge funds are adjusting their position on the metal.
See Gold Poised to Breakout Out of Long-Term Trend?
2 August 2017: AA PLC Shares to Bounce Back?I’m expecting the stock to bounce and so I’ve had a small buy after yesterday’s sacking of the executive chairman for ‘gross misconduct’.
Looking forward to some salacious gossip coming out.
Apple Stock Price Up 5%See Impressive Quarterly Numbers See Apple Shares Jump 5%.
Warning White House Revolving DoorIn honour of our favourite White House Communications Director who only lasted 10 days, we’ve put together our favourite Anthony Scaramucci Cartoons here.
Credit: Dave Granlund / Political Cartoons
2 August 2017: Another Small Short of Snap
1 August 2017: Snap Still FallingThe Snap Inc chart is still looking nasty… and I still have my small short on Snap.
31 July 2017: Is Gold Poised to Break Out of its Long-Term Trend?Looking at the daily chart, gold is in a classic triangle that started in July 2016.
Decisive Breakout Due?
For more details see Gold Poised to Breakout Out of Long-Term Trend?
26 July 2017: I’ve Shorted Snap Inc.I might be too late the party but the Snap chart looks hideous.
I’ve Shorted Snap Inc.
Snapping on it’s heels…
I’ve taken a small short at $14.03.
See my self-importantly titled view: Why I Shorted Snap.
New Warnings from the Markets
We’re 8-9 years into a very long bull run. Valuations are above average so in order to keep that going you need genuinely good earnings growth.
In my trust we think valuations are relatively high, therefore we are being more cautious and reducing the gearing.
There are still some good buying opportunities out there. But we’re also more cautious because the markets have performed so strongly for such a long period of time.
Warning: S&P 500 P/E Ratio at Multi-Year High
Calm Before the Storm? VIX at Multi-Year Lows
Long-term Volatility Chart
25 July 2017: IMF or WTF?
The markets have become much more cynical about the IMF’s economic predictions with the result that the markets have, in some circles, started to be seen as useful as an icy windscreen on a winter’s morning.
US Tech Sector Update
And Don’t Forget…
Also see Donald Trump videos.
For more, please see Dear Spread Betting Diary.
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