Welcome to Spread Bet Magazine

SpreadBetMagazine.com is now under new management. We are taking a slightly different angle in that we want to take a more rounded look at spread betting.

(Just a pretty picture, trading platforms don’t really look like this)


Dear Spread Betting Diary


23 October 2017: Quote of the Day

Corporations have neither bodies to be punished, nor souls to be condemned, they therefore do as they like” – Lord Thurlow, 1844


20 October 2017: Binary Options Still Rife with Cowboys

warningwarningwarning Good to see City police raid 20 offices in crackdown on binary options fraud.

For me though, that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

It’s about time the FCA regulated binary options / binaries trading.

That would allow the few decent firms to still operate while hopefully getting rid of a lot of the companies that just rip people off (assuming there are a few decent firms).

If we can get rid of all the dodgy firms that are allowed to work “legitimately” under very loose gaming licences, that will protect lot investors.

I do appreciate though, with or without proper regulation, you will still get boiler rooms.


Sales Chavs

Of course, financial spread betting isn’t perfect.

The industry still needs to improve, particularly when it comes to “Account Managers” i.e. 20-year-old sales chavs who constantly call you to try to get you to spread bet. Please fuck off.


20 October 2017: US Markets Dragging Everyone Else Higher

Whatever concerns investors may have about the many many global political risks, the overarching bullishness on the American economy continues to trump those concerns.

Admittedly though, US weekly jobless claims are at their lowest level since 1973. Not bad.

Yesterday, we also had more rumours about a getting a new Fed President who would be more dovish and naturally the markets like that.

We also had a bullish US manufacturing survey.


Dovish Fed President = Weaker Dollar

It’s no surprise that a Fed President who is more likely to hold off on interest rate rises will weaken the dollar.

There are now new reports suggesting that the idiot-in-chief is erring towards the dovish Jerome Powell as the new Federal reserve chairman.

infoNote, Trump is the idiot-in-chief for all the reasons you can see on our selection of Donald Trump videos and cartoon … not because he wants a weaker dollar.

Planning for a weaker dollar almost seems like there’s been a rational thought process and that’s highly unlikely.

Naturally a weaker dollar is probably also positive for US stocks.

warningWatch out for more dollars swings on Fed chair speculation


Sterling Feeling the Autumn Blues


Mark Carney's Choices
Choices, choices…

Sterling weakened again yesterday when September retail sales dropped 8%.

This adds another reason for why the BoE might hold off on a November rate rise.

warningAt the moment, the markets are pricing in a small November rate rise as being the most likely scenario. If there isn’t a rate rise then the pound could see a quick drop lower.

While it’s clear that some MPC members don’t support an increase in interest rates just yet, according to Michael Hewson at CMC Markets:

Comments in the summer from Andrew Haldane, chief economist, on the fact that excessively low rates could allow inflation to become entrenched, have caused the MPC some concern.

If, as Mark Carney suggested earlier this week, inflation does move above 3% next month, then the bank may feel it’s prudent to raise rates.

The bigger problem will be getting the five votes to push it through.


18 October 2017: Sterling Still Unsteady

As well as the Brexit negotiations there is pressure from:

  • trending_upWith yesterday’s CPI inflation at a five year high of 3% that should boost the pound.

    Even though 3% was expected, higher inflation supports the idea that the BoE will raise interest rates by the end of the year.

  • trending_downA pretty negative OECD report on the UK economy, mostly due to Brexit, didn’t help Sterling.

  • trending_downThe new members of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Silvana Tenreyro and deputy governor David Ramsden, seem pretty dovish. According to Michael Hewson at CMC Markets:
Both suggested that they were in no rush to raise interest rates at November’s meeting.

The dovishness from two new members of the committee has shifted the maths on the MPC enough to suggest that even if the BoE were to move rates next month the move is unlikely to be unanimous.
  • warningToday’s ILO unemployment data should add colour.

    Average earnings data is expected to remain constant at 2.1% but with inflation at 3%, that’s a cut in real wages and puts more pressure on BoE to kick the can down the road.


18 October 2017: Longer-term Dollar Movers and Shakers

Watch out for increased speculation as to who could be the new Fed chair – this could easily move the dollar and therefore pretty much any spread betting market.

John Taylor is the latest candidate to be touted as a possible replacement for Yellen.

Taylor would be a bit of strange choice though. He’s a bit of a policy hawk and Trump, preferring a weaker US dollar, would prefer a dove.

Current Fed board member Jerome Powell is also in the running, ‘if’ Yellen leaves. Powell is certainly more suited to Trump’s dovish preference.

Also see Why is the US Dollar So Important to Most Spread Betting Markets?


18 October 2017: Other Spread Betting Markets Taking a Hit



17 October 2017: Spread Bettors Very Short of Stock Markets

IG account holders are very bearish on the major indices:

Stock Market Spread Betting on Market Sentiment: 17 October 2017
Data as of 12pm, 17 October 2017

For more – see, “Spread Betting on Market Sentiment“.


17 October 2017: Decent-Sized Stock Market Correction

Sell sell sell
I will sell you soon, but not yet, not yet…


Bill McNabb, chairman of Vanguard, has said that the stock markets could due a “decent-sized correction at some point”.

Not familiar with Vanguard? They are one of the biggest global investment funds and where Warren Buffett suggested his wife put a tracker.

In an interview on Radio 4, McNabb said the markets were not “in bubble territory” but that valuations were “very high”.

On the one hand we should listen to Bill McNabb, he probably knows more than most of us and he probably has better analysis.

On the other hand, pointing out the obvious doesn’t help that much.

The S&P 500 is trading at P/E ratio of 25 which is high compared to the long-term average of 15.

Many investors are probably ready to hit the sell button and take their profits… but we need a solid event to drive that panic.

This is a useful bit of caution for all those buying that the top, i.e. keep trade sizes small… alas he doesn’t give us much more insight.

Also see Vanguard boss warns on stock market highs.


17 October 2017: Sterling Holding and Netflix Flying

So far today we are looking at:

  • trending_flatSterling holding its ground following a 5 year high for UK inflation – CPI is at its highest annual rate since April 2012.
However according to Chris Beauchamp at IG:

Given that there’s a pretty robust expectation that the Bank of England dust off its ‘rate increase’ button in November, and the annual CPI reading was only inline with expectations, that was not enough to send the pound much higher.
  • trending_downStock markets slightly lower in early trade and the FTSE is trading at a weekly low but that’s still only 60 points off the recent high.

  • trending_upSolid Netflix results giving the stock, and the US indices, a boost – read more


16 October 2017: The Pound – Record Highs and Interest Rates Nailed to the Floor

Last week saw new record closes for the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, Germany 30, MSCI World index and of course… the big US indices.

The Nikkei225 hit its highest levels since ’96… which was clearly a long time ago because in ’96 we were listening to Three Lions … the “30 years of hurt” version.

Why All the Stock Market Highs?
  • trending_upInvestors have a pretty optimistic outlook for the global economy
  • warningInvestors seem to be ignoring all the big political risks
  • trending_downThe returns in bonds and many other markets are pretty miserable
The returns in bonds and many other markets are pretty miserable According to Michael Hewson of CMC Markets, it’s the politics that is more likely to make a mess of things.

While all the talk is of a possible easing of monetary policy, the fact remains that even with a moderate retreat by the Federal Reserve, ECB and/or Bank of England, interest rates will still be nailed to the floor on a historical basis.

That’s not to say that we might not see some sort of policy mistake but it would need to be a real doozy.

And right now, that kind of mistake, doesn’t seem very likely.
How to Spread Bet on this View?
It’s easy to see Hewson being right in the short-term but that also means less predictable spread betting.

Perhaps it’s a case of waiting for some political fall out and a market to drop and then spread betting on the market to reverse back to the pre-panic level.

You could have done this with the Spain 35 Index when the Spanish government got very heavy handed with Catalans voters.

Likewise, this will have worked well with the FTSE 100 Index after almost any piece of “Conservative government making a mess of Brexit negotiations” story…

Of course… if the stocks market indices are just rising then, with hindsight, it’s easy to say “buy on the dip” whatever the cause of the dip.

A Lot of Big Political Risks
As well as the usual political risks of Brexit, Russia and the Middle East we also have The Donald vs Iran, The Donald vs North Korea, The Donald vs pretty much everyone else except Russia, Spain/Catalonia, a weaker Angie and the general rise in populism e.g. the AfD in Germany or the (probable) new Government in Austria.

With all this, expect shocks and quick moves. Consider spread betting with the smallest stakes.

As always, not trading is a very valid option.


13 October 2017: The Pound – The Snowflake of Currencies

The Snowflake Currency


If the dollar is the king of currencies then the pound is doing a great job of taking up the title of the “Snowflake of Currencies”.

Like the “Snowflake Generation”, sterling is looking fragile and will happily give up on any headline or rumour.

We’ve taken a longer look here at “The Snowflake Currency“.

In the meantime, the 5 minute chart below shows Sterling’s latest strop.

12 October 2017: Toys out of the pram…



13 October 2017: It’s Chart of the Day FFS!

Google will now give you a chart of a lot of things and that includes a chart of the mentions of “FFS” over time.

Perhaps it had a different meaning in the 1800s…

It certainly had a solid bull run from the ’50s to the early 2000s

Although I am surprised that usage didn’t rapidly increase after:

  • thumb_downThe Brexit referendum (whether you’re pro-Brexit or pro-Remain you can’t be happy with how much inept our politicians seem to be), or
  • thumb_downDonald Trump took up office
Chart of How Often 'FFS' Has Been Used Since the 1800s
FFS!



13 October 2017: New Record High for FTSE 100

trending_up The UK index hit a record high at 7,533 yesterday as the pound weakened on a lack of Brexit progress.

Although, while sterling has since recovered and then some, the FTSE is only trading a little off the highs at around 7,010.

The reverse correlation between the FTSE 100 and GBP/USD is far from perfect.

The Brexit d.i.v.o.r.c.e. is still a major sticking point for the pound and according to LCG:

The EU is unlikely to do much before agreeing the Brexit fee. A fee which could be anywhere between £50 and £100bn.

This would be to cover the financial commitments to EU projects as well as pensions of former EU staff in the UK and the relocation of the EU agencies.
I don’t blame the EU for this. No doubt the costs are inflated but it’s the UK that voted to leave and that means paying the EU to lose a lot of agencies…

FFS!


13 October 2017: New 20 Year High for Nikkei 225

trending_upThe Nikkei has broken through 21,000 for the first time in over 20 years and has shot up to 21,200.

trending_downUSD/JPY is testing ¥112.00 to the downside although it appears that traders prefer the ‘softening yen’ story to the ‘softening dollar’ story and this could catch them out.

Very short-term, the softening dollar could have more to it.

Yes, there is a snap election in Japan on 22 October but Shinzo Abe looks pretty safe, his main rival, Yuriko Koike, has pulled out of the race.

I.e. Abe’s view on weakening the yen further could be firmly priced in.

Of course, as Angie Merkel knows, nothing is certain in politics these days.


12 October 2017: Trump Confirms He’s a Still Moron. Again.

Grinning Idiot
Grinning Idiot


This time he’s mixed up stock market gains and the US national debt… or perhaps he’s just trying to mislead again. Yesterday, in an interview on Fox News he said:

The country, we took it over and owed over $20 trillion [of national debt]…

As you know, the last eight years, [the US government] borrowed more than it did in the whole history of our country.

So they borrowed more than $10 trillion, right? And yet we picked up $5.2 trillion just in the stock market. Possibly picked up the whole thing in terms of the first nine months, in terms of value.

So you could say, in one sense, we’re really increasing values. And maybe in a sense we’re reducing debt. But we’re very honored by it.
And here’s the video…
What a twat.

Also see: I’m sure the spread betting companies would love Trump as a client… as long has he deposited in advance…


12 October 2017: Bitcoin Hits $5,000

In another day of Bitcoin hurting many of the people trading it, the currency has hit $5,000 for the first time.

Below are the 1 day and 1 hour charts. I know it’s tempting to:

  • trending_upBuy Bitcoin! – “look at how strong that trend is”
  • trending_downBet against Bitcoin! – “it must fall soon”
Even if you toss the coin and you’re right, it’s the intraday volatility that will hurt you.

Also see our guide that covers “Serious Warning about Spread Betting and/or Trading CFDs on Cryptocurrencies




12 October 2017: Regulators Swallows Just Eat Purchase of Hungryhouse

WTF!? A UK tech success?

The Just Eat share price gapped up 7% on the open but it’s come off the boil a little since then:

Just Eat Chart
Eating up the competition


We’ve taken a longer look at the UK delivery firm here: Just Eat spread betting guide.

infoSpoiler alert: I don’t think spread betting is the right tool for a Just Eat trade.

We’ve also added a live Just Eat chart.


11 October 2017: Japan 225 at 21 Year High

It’s not just the US markets that are on a high, the Japan 225 index has closed at its highest level since 1996.

Japan 225 Bull Run
More National Rail than Bullet Train…

Japan 225 vs USD/JPY Correlation

The stock market high is interesting but it’s more interesting to take a quick look at the long-term Japan 225 vs USD/JPY correlation.


11 October 2017: Another View of the Markets Can Help

Below, an 8m:30s view of the markets but it’s a pretty interesting view.

The gent talks quickly but if you’re interested in the S&P 500, EUR/USD, silver or gold then there are some interesting trade set-ups.


11 October 2017: Forex Warning – Is there Upward Pressure on the Dollar?

warning Janet Yellen has admitted that the Fed is a wee bit perplexed at why inflation isn’t higher… particularly when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is at a 2 year low.

At the same time though, ISM surveys show US inflation at multiyear highs.

Last week’s US payrolls reports also showed that unemployment dropped again, to 4.2%, and that wages unexpectedly jumped to 2.9% in September.

Curiouser and curiouser…

Today’s FOMC minutes could tell us more about what the Fed is thinking.

As usual, more inflation = more interest rate rises = stronger dollar.

Also see Why is the US Dollar So Important to Most Spread Betting Markets?


Warning
Mind the big f*** off gap!


11 October 2017: Spanish Stock Market Gapping Daily

Caution is still very much needed for anyone looking at the Spanish stock market.

The Spain 35 Index has been gapping on a daily basis e.g. just looking at the last 3 sessions:

  • trending_upFriday’s close at 10,177 to Monday’s open at 10,311 = 134 point gap higher
  • trending_downMonday’s close at 10,225 to Tuesday’s open at 10,193 = 32 point gap lower
  • trending_upTuesday’s close at 10,138 to today’s open at 10,306 = 168 point gap higher
Ouch!

We’ve covered these gaps, and the other recent gaps, in our Spanish stock market spread betting guide.

What do you need to know? Pretty simple, if in doubt, don’t trade.


8 October 2017: Spread Betting on Sundays

It’s Sunday but that doesn’t mean you have to stop trading… some synthetic stock markets are available for Sunday trading for 8am to about 22.40pm, UK time.

I.e. they close a little before the normal weekday 24 hour stock markets re-open.

IG offer Sunday market on the FTSE 100, DAX and Dow Jones and they’ve been doing this for some time.

These aren’t quite normal markets though. IG operate their normal weekday markets and these synthetic Sunday markets separately e.g. if you open a spread bet on the Thursday you couldn’t close it on the Sunday… but you could hedge it.

When you think about it, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. You don’t want your normal trades stopped out because of a hopefully-accurate-but-ultimately-synthetic market that is open on a Sunday.

There are also other issues like wider spreads e.g. 5.8pts for the FTSE 100 and 7pts for both the Germany 30 and Wall Street. Of course, that may be a price that’s worth paying.

In short, these aren’t normal markets but you may want to be aware of them.

Before you trade them though, you need to understand the slightly different rules. Take a look at our guide: Sunday FTSE, DAX and Dow Jones markets.


6 October 2017: Mierda! Spain 35 Stop Loss Hit

The market bounced quickly yesterday and took out my Stop at 10,200.

If you’re trading the Spanish stock market then take care, there are plenty of sharp moves, including 282 point and 347 point daily moves.

Also the Spain 35 market hours are only 8am to 4.30pm (UK time) and that leaves a lot of time for positions to the built up.

Be prepared for plenty of gaps… like the overnight gap we’ve seen between the last couple of sessions.

Spain 35 Chart  - June to 6 October 2017
282 point and 347 point moves

But… I’ve got an idea for a risky spread bet.

For more see Spain 35 spread betting update.


Rebates for Spread Betting, Forex and CFDs


5 October 2017: Monthly Trading Rebates Can Help But…

Rebates are only rebates…

They only give you money back on your trading.

Yes, yes, that may seem obvious but the point is, however much you trade, concentrate on your P&L rather than any trading offer or rebate.

Also, if you trade infrequently then you are unlikely to get a rebate.

At the same time though, if you spread bet a lot then it’s worth taking a look at the monthly rebates that a few firms offer.

InterTrader have been offering a monthly rebate for a long time – see InterTrader Rebate.


Financial Spreads Rebate?

The Financial Spreads rebate is one of the more simple rebates to qualify for – if you trade +£250 in spread costs then you get a 10% rebate.

And once you’ve earned the rebate there are no shenanigans, you can withdraw it.

If you trade £1,500 in spread costs then you get a 15% rebate and if you trade more £4,000 in a month then you get a 20% rebate.

A warning though, anything above £1,000 is a lot of trading in a given month.

Also see Financial Spreads Rebate..

For a longer look, see how do spread betting rebates work?


5 October 2017: It Feels Like We’ve Been Here Before

…but I’m not sure if that makes spread betting any easier.

  • warningThe Spain 35 gapped 25 points lower over night but in early trade it has bounced 125 points higher.

    With nothing resolved there must still be downward pressure on the index (at least that’s my view… and I’m short of the index)

  • trending_upThe DAX might be benefiting from money flowing out of Spanish stocks and into German stocks.

    The DAX had a torrid summer and lost 1,000 points. However, since the low of 11,867 on 29 August, the index has added a rather cheeky 1080 points to the current prices just below the 13,000 mark.

    I might wait for a break for 13,000 before looking at the German stock market, it has had problems with resistance around that level before.

  • trending_upMore record highs for the US stock market. A strong September ISM services report added to the good numbers in Monday’s manufacturing data. All this should help strengthen the dollar.

    And as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets said:
The ADP employment report was a bit on the weak side but, despite the disruption from all the storms, there was nothing in it to suggest that the Fed won’t raise rates later this year.



4 October 2017: The King’s Speech II Gets Panned

Perhaps Spain’s King Felipe VI thought he was Colin Firth (or even King George VI)… either way the markets hated his aggressive speech and the Spain 35 index sold off heavily this morning.

Too late to the party?

What next? I might be too late to the party. But I’ve still taken a look at and shorted the Spanish stock market.


4 October 2017: Is Gold Heading for Another Interesting Trade Set-Up?

The gold price is looking interesting.

Long-Term Gold Chart: Feb 2016 to Oct 2017 - Up Channel

If it bounces off the up channel support that’s been in play for nearly a year then a small buy could be interesting.

No bet yet but one to keep an eye on.

Also see Gold spread betting guide.


2 October 2017: Useful 7m Video on a Busy Week Ahead

There is a quiet range of related market moves at the moment and plenty of political machinations that are also impacting the markets… and we have the Non-farm payrolls this Friday.

(For the financial spread betting companies, the NFP Friday is normally the busiest day of the month).

Here’s a useful video from CMC Markets looking at the week ahead:



2 October 2017: Hedge Funds Very Long of the Dow Jones

Looking at the latest Commitment of Traders report, i.e. how the big boys are trading, it’s interesting to note that:
  • trending_upAs usual that they can’t make up their mind on the US stock market.

    They are massively long of the Dow Jones at 9.7:1 i.e. they are holding nearly 10 long trades for every short trade. At the same time they are only 3:2 long of the S&P 500.
  • trending_upThe funds are getting longer of crude oil, they were 2.2:1 long in the 29 Aug report and they are 3:1 in the latest report. That’s 5 weeks of steadily increasing ratios.
  • trending_upGold has steadily dropped from 3.7:1 to 3.3:1 over the last 4 weeks but that’s still fairly bullish.
  • trending_upEUR/USD – the funds are nearly 2:1 long, up from 3:2 last week, but holding at roughly the same ratio for the last 5 weeks.
  • trending_flatGBP/USD – the funds were 1:2 for the 29 Aug, 5 Sep and 12 Sep reports, i.e. they were short of GBP/USD but for the 19 Sep and the latest report, i.e. 26 Sep, that position is 1.1:1, i.e. the big boys are pretty flat.
  • trending_upJPY/USD – the funds have gotten slightly shorter of JPY/USD at 1:2.7.

    That’s not an error, the COT reports are always “other currency vs US dollar” so the funds are nearly 1:3 short of JPY/USD… or put in normal terms… they are nearly 3:1 long of USD/JPY
  • trending_flatUS Dollar Index – for a bigger picture on the dollar, the hedgies are still flat with the long:short ratio barely changing between 1:1.1 and 1:1.2 over the last 5 weeks.

2 October 2017: Will Airline Shares Soar?

Ignoring the tabloid headline, there are some interesting moves in the airline sector.

Ryanair could benefit in two ways from the Monarch debacle. EasyJet and IAG could also be worth a look.

Below, a handy 6 min video from IG looking at the share prices of the various airlines:



28 September 2017: The Moore the Merrier? Not This Time

And we’re off topic again. Sorry.

But if you’ve been wondering why we keep hearing about the goings on in Alabama, here’s another Donald-centric issue.

This time it’s Roy Moore beating the Trump-backed Luther Strange in the Alabama Republican Senate primary.

Now a Republican Senate primary doesn’t normally hit the news in the UK but this one did for a couple reasons:
  1. Trump‘s man lost – and that’s always funny
  2. The man he lost to, Roy Moore, makes many a Republican Senator look like they’re a member of the Labour party
Roy Moore, the former Alabama chief justice, is known for being controversial and was removed from state supreme court post twice. Yes. Twice.

According to the Guardian:

Moore had previously been removed as Alabama’s chief justice two times. The first time was when he refused to remove a monument to the Ten Commandments that he installed in the state courthouse. Wow.

The second time was for refusing to implement the US supreme court ruling legalising gay marriage.
OK… he’s an old school right-wing bigot.

But the Guardian was being a bit kind when it came to Moore being anti-gay. Also, Moore is clearly a daft racist.

Here’s 8 minutes of Trevor Noah giving a summary of the vote, Trump’s reaction and then some truly amazing footage of the man who’s likely to become a Senator for Alabama.


Part 1: Getting Trump’s Backing:


Part 2: The Result and who is Roy Moore:


26 September 2017: Mario Hits the Euro

ECB president Mario Draghi probably doesn’t like the look of the EUR/USD chart and has been “talking down” the euro.

The ECB had seemed pretty relaxed by the single currency’s rise… until now.

According to Chris Beauchamp at IG:

Draghi has reminded us not to get too carried away with the idea of the ECB starting it’s tapering… indeed more easing could needed.

As always, super Mario is carefully hedging his bets and with Germany distracted by coalition building the ECB needs to keep the show on the road.

If that means more QE, so be it.
Also see Where Next for EURUSD?


26 September 2017: Markets Still Ignoring the Threat of Nuclear War?

There’s an interesting article in The Economist that talks about why investors haven’t reacted much to the threat of nuclear war…

It’s actually from 7 September but still seems relevant, see Gone Fission.


26 September 2017: Dodgy Donald Tweet Deleted

It’s always interesting to see which tweets get deleted from the @realDonaldTrump twitter feed…

It’s a bit late though… people are watching… it gets noticed…

See Dodgy Donald Tweet Deleted.


26 September 2017: Fraudsters and Poor ISIS Hacking Skills

There was a strange story on the BBC yesterday which talked about how poor ISIS are at hacking – see IS hacking skills are ‘garbage’.

I don’t have an issue with the Beeb but it didn’t seem that balanced.

While the story made me feel good for about 10 seconds, I quickly remembered about how we used to laugh at North Korean’s missiles launches that repeatedly failed… people can learn quickly…

I did like one part of the story though.

[ISIS have also had problems with] attempts to raise cash via donations of Bitcoins, these efforts have been diluted by fraudsters cashing in on the IS name and producing websites mimicking the appeals for funds.


25 September: Spread Bet of the Day – Buy Angry Tweets Aimed at TfL

(Some clarity, and the avoidance of doubt, it’s not OK to troll people online, Tweet abuse etc… but… giving Khan and TfL constructive feedback on why you want them to fix the Uber issue is acceptable).
  • trending_upBuy: Angry Tweets Aimed at TfL and Sadiq Khan
On Friday, Transport for London (TfL) announced that Uber’s licence to operate a taxi service in London would end in October.

The 21 days notice stunned many and my Whatsapp hasn’t seen that many angry people since the UK Brexit referendum.

I can only imagine that Sadiq Khan, London Mayor and TfL Chairman must have gotten a lot angry Tweets from fellow Londoners.

Few in London want to return to awkward, and often unavailable, taxis that cost 2-3 times as much as an Uber.

Black cabs are a great example of how Monopolies deliver poor service and poor value.

If there’s a safety issue with Uber then fix it… don’t take transport backwards.


21 September 2017: The Fed Gives EUR/USD A Boost

Why did EUR/USD sell off if the markets expected:
  • arrow_forwardThe Fed start reducing its balance sheet, and
  • arrow_forwardNo hike in June, and
  • arrow_forwardStill the potential of a rate hike in December?
According to Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst, CMC Markets, the issue surrounded inflation and growth.

Growth in either area would push the FOMC to raise rates and naturally that would strengthen the dollar.

The FOMC suggested three potential rate rises in 2018 despite downgrading their inflation forecasts from 1.7% to 1.5% for 2017 and from 2% to 1.9% for 2018.

The FOMC surprised by revising 2017 growth forecasts up from 2.1% to 2.2%. This is a little strange given recent weakness retail sales data and the economic damage caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

Yes, the US labour market is in good shape but there’s scant evidence of inflation.

Sharp EUR/USD Sell-Off
During last night’s sell-off I closed my EUR/USD position for an irritatingly small loss.

EUR/USD Chart
Hit the Close Button!


Has EUR/USD Up-Channel Support Held Up?
The market has bounced off the up-channel support we’ve been discussing on SpreadBetMagazine.

EUR/USD might be worth another trade, see EUR/USD spread betting update.

EUR/USD Chart
Hold the line! Stay with me!


21 September 2017: Move Along, There’s Nothing to See.

Lederhosen Baby!
Elections During the Oktoberfest?


This Could Be A Snoozefest…
It looks like Angela Merkel has run the kind of effortless election campaign that Theresa May can only dream of.

We’ve had a quick look at how the spread betting brokers are treating their markets.

Unlike recent UK and US elections, it’s pretty much a case of business as usual.

For more, see German Elections Illicit No Big Trading Warnings… So Far.

Why No Big Fuss?
Angela Merkel is priced at 1.02 on Betfair to be the next German Chancellor… that suggests a 98% chance of her retaining her job.

The exit polls are due at 5pm UK time on Sunday, and as usual IG, are offering trading on Sunday stock markets.


All Eyes on the Dollar


 

20 September 2017: Time for the Federal Reserve’s View on Interest Rates

It’s a big day for a lot of spread betting markets, the Fed is due to give its position on the next rate rise.

Outside of the monthly non-farm payrolls releases, FOMC rate announcements normally make for the busiest day for the spread betting firms.

Ahead of the meeting, I’m looking to close my USDJPY spread bet.

I only have one other open trade at the moment, i.e. the EUR/USD spread bet but we have wide Stops and Limits on that so I’m less concerned about a spike or gap.

Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst, at CMC Markets as taken a more in-depth look at today’s meeting:

The bond markets are making it 50/50 that the Fed will hike rates in December. This seems optimistic given the uncertainty around the damage caused by recent hurricanes. Today’s meeting may well shift those odds but it is unlikely to provide the final word.
Hewson also gives a little more insight:

“There doesn’t appear to be in any doubt that the FOMC looks set to announce the paring down of its $4.5trn balance sheet.

“Likewise, inflation still remains weak, and the damage from hurricanes Harvey and Irma continues to be assessed, so there’s little doubt that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged.

The Big Question
“The big question is on the timing of the next rate rise.

“There is a school of thought that suggests the market is under-pricing the prospect of a hike in December and it is unlikely that the Fed will want to take the prospect of a December hike off the table.

“However, a range of factors that could delay the this and also see fewer projected increases for 2018.

“We should expect to hear the Fed’s view on the impact of the hurricanes and that could well prompt some caution over the direction of the economic data.

“Particular attention will be given to inflation forecasts albeit with inflation looking lethargic.

“Looking at GDP, recent data covering retail sales and industrial production have been weaker than expected.

“A cautious economic outlook is likely to push back the potential December rate rise.

“If the December rate rise remains in play but undecided by the time of the December meeting itself then it will become even less likely.

“A number of the Federal Reserve‘s members are due to leave before the December decision, including vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer.

“With five new members set to be appointed to the Fed, policy is likely to be cloudy for some time.”


20 September 2017: Another Bite Out of Bitcoin

Yesterday, Chinese authorities told Bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai to close their operations by… err… end of play… 20 September… that’s today.

The news was semi-expected but the speed of the closure is still a bit of a surprise.

Less surprising was the fact that Bitcoin had a down day and this is just another reason to not trade the “currency”, read more.


19 September 2017: Abe Considers Snap Election… Sayōnara Yen

Increasing tensions with North Korea and Prime Minister Abe considering a snap election are not helping the yen.

USD/JPY has passed the 200-day moving average at ¥111.50 (line shown in green below).

I’ve taken a small short-term speculative buy. The longer-term view is also interesting. For more read new USD/JPY spread bet.

USD/JPY with 200 Day Moving Average
USD/JPY with 200 Day Moving Average


19 September 2017: EUR/USD Struggling at $1.2000

EUR/USD hasn’t been able to overcome $1.2000 since it hit the level on 29 August.

I’m still keeping my buy trade open though.

See EUR/USD spread betting update.

EUR/USD: 1 Day Chart: 19 September 2017
Struggling at $1.2000


And Don’t Forget…

Trump: No One Knows the System Better Than Me

Also see Donald Trump videos.


For more, please see Dear Spread Betting Diary.






What’s New on SpreadBetMagazine?

We have worked for the spread betting companies in the past. We spread bet. We trade CFDs. We have seen much of what goes on, both good and bad.

Hopefully we can cover some industry gossip too (even when it irritates our advertisers).

Our aim with Spread Bets Magazine is to:

  • arrow_forwardProvide some informative views on how you can improve your trading. We think most trading losses are due to school boy errors.We don’t have a magic pill or ’20 amazing trading secrets’ but if we can help you become more disciplined then will be hopefully save you some money
  • arrow_forwardGive more detail on how to make the spread betting sites work for you
  • arrow_forwardOffer personal views but not trading tips. Note, we are not regulated to give advice and that is probably a good thing!
  • arrow_forwardShed some light on the poor industry practices
  • arrow_forwardPoint out were the industry is pretty fair e.g. we know that many spread bettors don’t like the rolling charges (aka overnight financing charges). However, investors need to remember that when you spread bet or trade CFDs that you are borrowing from the relevant broker. If the broker charges you a rate of “(baserate +2.5%)/365” per night, that’s a reasonable borrowing rate. It’s probably better than your mortgage rate.
  • arrow_forwardFlatter our egos and pretend we know something useful (mostly by pointing out all the school boy errors we have made in the past)
  • arrow_forwardAdd a little colour, politics and humour to what can be a very dry topic – also see Dear Diary
Sometimes we all need this kind of trading assistance...



A Wee Disclaimer and Possible Conflict of Interest

We provide this site for free and rely primarily on advertising revenues for our funding.

Readers should assume that we could well have commercial relationships with the various brokers, third parties, writers etc. on SpreadBetMagazine.com.

We do our best to be impartial but if you think we’re not being impartial please contact us or, better still, if you think a broker review is unfair or their service has changed for the worse etc. please add a comment on that review.

The more user comments we have on the broker review pages the more balanced the reviews will be.

Good luck

Alex Turner
Senior Editor
SpreadBetMagazine.com

AuthorAlex Turner

Senior Editor, SpreadBetMagazine