(Just a pretty picture, trading platforms don’t really look like this)
16 January 2018: Quote of the Day“The quickest way to make a million? Marry it. “ – Zsa Zsa Gabor
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Dear Spread Betting Diary
15 January 2018: Markets Take the Lead From US & Point To Strong Starttrending_up A key index for the Asia Pacific region touched a fresh record high early this morning as Asian stocks took their lead from the strong finish by Wall Street on Friday.
trending_up An encouraging start to Q4 US earning season, plus robust retail sales and a strong energy sector rallying on high crude oil prices, ensured the US indices experienced anther round of fresh record highs on Friday.
Oil Hovers Around $70trending_up Moving towards the European open, futures are pointing to strong start across the board.
The FTSE looks poised to attack a fresh record high on the open, in what is becoming an almost frequent occurrence
Energy firms could find themselves leading the charge northwards, as Brent crude oil hovers around $70 per barrel and WTI trades just short of $64.50.
warning Recent drawdowns in crude stockpiles have tightened the oil markets considerably over the past week and could continue to do so at least in the short term.
trending_up Furthermore, demand is also looking healthy, supporting the other side of the equation.
In short, fundamentals support the gains. However, $70 feels too high, we know that at these prices US shale production also tends to pick up, so a reaction is expected with shale producers firing back into life.
trending_up In the meantime, however, we can expect oil majors and energy stocks to charge higher on the stronger prices.
Carillion Looking for 11th Hour Rescuewarning On the downside, we could expect to see construction firms to be out of favour as fears grow for troubled UK constructor Carillion.
Investors will be keen to sell out of Carillion as the market opens on Monday, over fears that the constructing giant could collapse over its £1.5bn debt pile.
This appears to be a simple case of fingers in too many pies – the firm over stretched itself.
The Government refused to bailout Carillion, leaving the firm in a last-minute plea with the banks, to help rescue it.
This saga risk becoming an embarrassment for the government as Carillion holds a range of government contracts including with schools, hospitals, transport infrastructure etc. Therefore the collapse of Carillion could have a far-reaching impacting.
Dollar Weaker Despite Stronger CPItrending_down In the forex markets, the dollar continues to suffer at the hands of investors and this was despite core inflation jumping the highest in 11months in December.
Sluggishly weak inflation has been a big story for the US over the past 9 months, so the expectation would have been for the higher CPI reading on Friday to boost the buck.
This wasn’t the case and instead the dollar sold off, to the delight of the US stock market which benefited from the weaker dollar, in addition to the encouraging start to earning season.
The US stock markets will be shut today for Martin Luther King Day.
GBP/USD to head for $1.39?trending_up Meanwhile, the pound was taking advantage of the weaker dollar and GBP/USD soared to a high of $1.3749.
This is the strongest rate that the pound has traded versus the dollar since it fell 1000 points following the Brexit referendum in June 2016.
Reports that Spain and Holland would support a soft Brexit helped boost the pound, and, even after the relevant government denied the report, the pound remained buoyant.
warning Now traders will look out to Tuesdays’ inflation reading. Strong figures here could see the pound aim towards $1.39.
Update by Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Market Analyst, LCG
9 January 2018: Crude Oil to Reach $75 in 2018?video_label We’ve added a useful 7 minute video looking at the crude oil market for 2018.
If you’re interested in the oil market, this is a good summary and worth a watch (and there’s not much waffle either).
The video is on our crude oil spread betting guide.
Bitcoin “Consolidating” at $15,000?Nothing is ever clear in the Bitcoin market but are we seeing some kind of consolidation around $15,000?
We might be seeing a Bitcoin support / resistance levels (read more).
Also see “Is this the Least Stupid Way to Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin & Ethereum?“.
8 January 2018: New Year, Same Volatility for BitcoinIn case you missed it… Bitcoin did get back up to the $17,000 mark on Sunday.
It’s now back down to $15,000.
warning Extreme volatility continues to plague the market, see real-time Bitcoin chart.
WTF? What $1,000 Minimum First Time Deposit?We’ve received an email from eToro saying:
We are raising the minimum first time deposit to $1,000.I don’t get that.
This is to ensure speedier processing of deposit requests and to keep the services we provide at an optimal level.
Normal minimum deposits are around £100, euro100 or $100 e.g. with City Index, CMC, ETX, Financial Spreads, IG, InterTrader, Spreadex, Tradefair etc.
I know payments are a pain for the spread betting and CFD companies but most payments are automatic…
If you want to keep out the riff-raff like me, start with raising it to £250 or $250.
If you still have issues after that then you’re doing something else wrong.
“New” 2018 Rebatesinfo Financial Spreads have “re-set” their 25% Rebate for 2018.
I.e. as well as new clients, existing clients can claim a new 25% rebate… as long as they qualify again by depositing £250, (€250, $250) in 2018.
Financial Spreads are also still running their monthly rebate which is imaginatively titled “Trader Rebate”.
Elsewhere, InterTrader are still running their monthly rebate called “TradeBack”.
For details see our guide to spread betting, FX and CFD rebates.
4 January 2018: Bitcoin Back Up 35%!trending_up Since the low of $10,692 on 22 December the market has bounced back to $14,500… that’s a cheeky 35% bounce.
info It looks like the market is currently using $10,000 and $20,000 as very rough support and resistance levels.
warning Trading remains highly volatile. Only trade with money you are happy to lose.
For more on this, see our Bitcoin spread betting update.
4 January 2018: New US Dollar Index Trade Ideavideo_label We’ve added a new 5 minute on US dollar index ahead of tomorrow’s NFP.
See our US Dollar Index spread betting guide.
27 December 2017: Fear Factors & Trading in 2018It’s that quiet bit between Christmas and New Year so here’s a useful 10 minute video that looks at the bigger picture for 2018.
There’s not too much waffle and does look at some interesting data:
21 December 2017: Italy 40 Ready to Drop?trending_down The Italian stock market looks like it could in a classic Head and Shoulders pattern.
We’ve added a 5 minute video looking this, see our Italy 40 spread betting guide.
20 December 2017: Bitcoin in Bear Market (Technically)warning Bitcoin has dropped 20% and technically that puts it in a bear market.
Although, as we say in our Bitcoin spread betting and trading guide, Bitcoin has its own bizarre rules…
A 20% drop for Bitcoin probably isn’t a bear market.warning Cryptocurrency trading remains highly volatile.
A 20% drop probably isn’t even a “correction” it may only be a “dip”.
Reform Cuts Seem a Little One-sided…
19 December 2017: Christmas TreatIn celebration of the new Star Wars film, The Last Jedi, and that fact that the markets are a bit quiet this morning… we thought we’d put up this classic.
8 minutes of “Snatch Wars” (Snatch Vs Star Wars).
Is this why the internet was created? We hope so.
warning Lots of funny / puerile adult language
16 December 2017: US Tax
Reform Cuts Get Closer
15 December 2017: A New Warning on Bitcoinwarning It’s good to see the FCA trying to get message out about the risks of “Investing” in Bitcoin.
In an interview on Newsnight, Andrew Bailey, Head of the FCA, came out with a pretty clear view:
If you want to invest in Bitcoin be prepared to lose your money – that would be my serious warningSee more warnings and trading facts on our Bitcoin blog.
14 December 2017: The Fed Hikes & Dollar Falls
This week’s Fed meeting went as planned with the 0.25% rate hike but the dollar didn’t like the Fed’s uncommitted view.
See Live EUR/USD chart.
13 December 2017: New Trading Videos (with Technical Analysis)We’ve added 2 new videos:
video_label a 13 minute video taking a longer look at the US dollar. The video concentrates on the US dollar index, USD/JPY and gold – see trading the US dollar in 2018.
video_label 4 minutes of technical analysis on the HK50 – see is the Kong Kong Hang Seng on course to hit 30,000?
FOMC Meetings Create “Expected” VolatilitywarningIf you have open positions heading into tonight’s Fed announcements (see below) – then don’t forget that, after the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls, it’s the FOMC meetings that normally produce the most “expected” volatility.
I know we are crying out for more market volatility but, just like the NFP, these short-term spikes can hurt.
You have been warned.
Comedy Currency Trading!warningTalking of volatile trading, the comedy currency that is Bitcoin continues to have intraday $1,000 – $1,500 swings!
If you combine these swings with spread betting or CFD trading you will get hurt very quickly and it will be really painful.
Or… as I like to say:
Combining ultra volatile markets with leveraged trading is like drinking and driving… it is only a matter of time before a something really really bad happens.Did I just quote myself? Yes, sorry. I just wanted to make sure that stood out.
If you really want to jump on the bubble that is Bitcoin, see:
What? An Alabama Election to Move the Spread Betting Markets?
The Moore the Merrier? Not This Time
It looks like the hideous Roy Moore has lost the race for the Alabama Senate seat that was up for grabs.
There are a lot of unpleasant allegations about Roy Moore but I don’t agree with trail by internet.
… however, we can judge him by his own words, see the Moore the Merrier? Not This Time.
Looking at the markets though, this unexpected victory also points at how unpopular Trump is.
Crucially, losing a Senate seat makes things far more tricky for Trump and the Republican agenda.
See why the Alabama State election is important for the spread betting markets.
12 December 2017: Bitcoin’s Extreme Electricity Usage – Another Reason the Market Could Crashwarning We’ve added a new video that’s acts as a nice health warning for anyone looking to trade the cryptocurrency.
At the moment Bitcoin miners are using as much electricity as Nigeria (90m people).
Before long miners will be using as much as electricity as Japan
See Bitcoin Market Manipulation, Electricity Usage and Why Bitcoin Could Crash.
11 December 2017: Is the Santa Rally About to Kick Off?Below, a quick 4 minute video looking at the Santa rally that often boosts the FTSE 100.
lightbulb_outline Taking 30 years of data… the FTSE 100 rallies an average of about 2% rally from mid-December to the end of the month.
With the FTSE 100 above 7,450 a 2% increase would take it to/above the all-time highs aroud 7,556.
Bubble Trading – You Shouldn’t But If You Really Really Must…There might be a semi-convenient way of buying / holding / selling Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum.
It’s not advisable to trade such volatile markets when they are in such clear bubbles but if you really really must…
info Revolut has added cryptocurrency exchange.
This might be one of the least stupid ways to invest:
thumb_up The exchange is just an exchange, it’s not leveraged. If you deposit £200 and convert it into Bitcoin… then, when the bubble bursts you’ll only lose your £200.
thumb_up You won’t get stopped out in highly volatile swings.
thumb_up Revolut is FCA regulated and so this gives you more security over your deposits.
For more see our article – Is this the Least Stupid Way to Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin & Ethereum?
11 December 2017: There’s a Lot of Economic Data this WeekToday could be quiet but come Tuesday, the markets could still be quite lively.
Below a 10 minute look at how things could unfold with updates from the Fed, BoE & ECB.
There’s UK and US inflation updates, new wage growth data and naturally these feed into the forex markets.
If you skip to 6 minutes, there’s some quick technical analysis on how the new data could impact the markets.
8 December 2017: It’s a Busy Few Days for Bitcoinstrending_uptrending_downtrending_up It’s hits $17,000 in yet more erratic trading.
warningwarning Overnight the cryptocurrency jumped to $17,000 before dropped back to $14,000.
According to David Madden, Market Analyst, CMC Markets:
The cryptocurrency is seeing tremendous volatility, but the upward is still in place for now.
And…warning $80m Stolen worth of Bitcoin was stolen from a mining service.
7 December 2017: A Few Trading Warnings and… One Spread Betting Idea!We have updates on:
warning Bitcoin as it hits $14,000 – see Bitcoin spread betting update.
warning US crude oil production is at record levels – see crude oil spread betting update.
lightbulb_outline and… a new Channel Trading (Range Trading) idea. This is one to watch.
4 December 2018: Trump Tax Plan Gets Closer
3 December 2018: Technical Levels for the Week AheadBelow, a useful 8 minute video taking a look at the coming week with a quick technical look at the Dow Jones, FTSE 100, Japan 225, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, crude oil and gold.
It’s a New Month – Don’t Forget Your RebatesA few firms like InterTrader and Financial Spreads have monthly spread betting, CFD and forex rebates.
It’s worth checking them out if you trade a lot (or trade semi-frequently with +£5/pt trades)
If you don’t trade much, or trade with smaller trade sizes like £1/pt, then you’re unlikely to get much from a rebate.
There’s full rundown in our spread betting, CFD and forex rebates guide.
1 December 2017: Yep, the Leader of the Free World is Still a Daft RacistI’m not a massive fan of The Mirror but they’ve got their reporting right on this one.
Donald Trump has retweeted three racist tweets by Britain First and then managed to have a public spat with Theresa May.
And Don’t Forget…
Also see Donald Trump videos.
For more, please see Dear Spread Betting Diary.
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Hopefully we can cover some industry gossip too (even when it irritates our advertisers).
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Readers should assume that we could well have commercial relationships with the various brokers, third parties, writers etc. on SpreadBetMagazine.com.
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