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23 March 2018: The Dow Plunges as Trump’s Targets China with $60bn in TariffsDonald Trump has signed the executive order that imposes duties worth $60bn on 1,300 Chinese imported products:
And this is only the first of many othersMarch 22 could be remembered as the day when the trade war between Beijing and Washington began.
trending_down Wall Street reacted immediately, with the Dow Jones closing with a -2.93% loss.
The first wave of US tariffs comes into force today, March 23, the one on the import of steel (25%) and aluminium (10%).
Exempted CountriesTrump administration exempted the 28 countries of the European Union, as well as Argentina, Australia, Brazil and South Korea. Canada and Mexico were already exempted.
Pressure from EU officials on Trump have achieved one goal… or perhaps China was really the only target.
Nevertheless, the quarrel with Europe is not over yet. Trump warned live on television:
We are negotiating with the European Union because they have too high trade barriers. We are dealing with other countries. For too long they have benefited at our expense.Trump made it clear that the number one problem is not Europe but China and said:
Every time I meet Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a great friend of mine, I see his smile. I guess you think: how did we take advantage of Americans for so long? Well that era is over. The key word for me is “reciprocity”.
Trade must be balanced, the conditions for opening the markets must be the same, as if they were reflected in a mirror.
With Beijing we have a trade deficit of $500bn, more than half of the $800bn deficit we have with the rest of the world. We must do somethingThe category of Chinese goods which will be most affected is tech, from electronic components to aerospace.
It is no coincidence that Trump invited the managing director of Lock-heed-Martin, Marillyn Hewson, to the signing ceremony.
warning The Chinese reaction came soon after Trump’s move, as Beijing saying it plans to set tariffs up to 25% on imports of US goods.
trending_down Asian equity markets plunged. The Nikkei 225 closed down -4.51%, South Korea’s Kopsi index fell -3.29%.
trending_down Key industrial commodities collapsed as well, with the iron ore futures down 5% and copper dropping to a three-month low.
1 March 2018: Europe Lower After Dow Jones Plunges Almost 400 Pointstrending_down US equity markets continued their Powell inspired sell off overnight, as risk aversion dominated and investor concerns over a faster pace of tightening at the Fed continued to weigh on Wall Street.
trending_down The Dow ended the session 380 points lower, whilst the S&P 500 closed 1.1% lower and the Nasdaq 100 shed 0.8%.
This draws a line under February and simultaneously brings to an end the S&P 500‘s 10 month winning streak.
The stock index booked its first losing month in nearly a year amid intense concerns over rising interest rate expectations causing investors to sell out of stocks.
trending_down After another steep selloff on Wall Street, indices were under pressure in Asia and the domino effect means a negative start to trading is forecast for Europe this morning.
Dollar retains buying interesttrending_up In the forex markets, the dollar was king, as investors continued to digest Fed Powell’s optimistic and hawkish tone in his appearance before the Congress financial services committee.
Not even US Q4 GDP being revised down to 2.5% was going to rain on the dollar’s parade.
In the Markets Todaywarning Today promises to be a big day for the dollar thanks to a full US economic calendar, with highlights such as PCE, initial jobless claims and ISM Manufacturing figures all expected to impact on the market.
Given the markets hyper-sensitivity to interest rate expectations, particularly in light of Powell’s optimism over the strength of the US economy, even the slightest surprise to the upside on a reading, could put fresh legs on the dollar rally.
Also, given that in the last session the dollar charged higher on a downward revision of Q4 GDP, a decline in personal consumption and a huge miss in pending homes sales, strong readings today could potentially see a strong reaction.
trending_up The US dollar index rose through the previous session and is seen encountering resistance at 90.67 overnight.
A meaningful break through this level could see the dollar index target 90.88, a move above here would be a very positive development for the dollar bulls. On the downside, a strong support can be seen at 88.50.
GBP/USD Sheds over 1% on Brexit FearsWhilst European bourses are heading for a negative start, the FTSE could find its losses capped by a considerably weaker pound.
trending_down GBP/USD plummeted over 1.1% in the previous session to a 6-week low of $1.3750, as the seemingly unresolvable Irish border issue continues to hamper Brexit talk progress.
The clock is ticking, with just three weeks to go until the transition period should be agreed between the EU and Britain, yet the two sides are still at opposite ends of the playing field.
The differences between the sides became more evident on Wednesday, following Theresa May’s flat out rejection of the EU’S proposed ruling over Northern Ireland in the draft Article 50 treaty, to prevent a hard border there.
Sterling traders will now look anxiously towards Theresa May’s speech on Friday where she will lay out her vision of the post Brexit relationship.
warning Concerns are increasing that she is looking to adopt a harder line on Brexit, which would be bad news for the already struggling pound.
Update by Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Market Analyst, LCG
2018 Rebatesinfo Financial Spreads have “re-set” their 25% Rebate for 2018.
I.e. as well as new clients, existing clients can claim a new 25% rebate… as long as they qualify again by depositing £250, (€250, $250) in 2018.
Financial Spreads are also still running their monthly rebate which is imaginatively titled “Trader Rebate”.
Elsewhere, InterTrader are still running their monthly rebate called “TradeBack”.
For details see our guide to spread betting, FX and CFD rebates.
Trumps rolls into Davos
22 January 2018: Plenty of Markets Still In-Play for 2018video_label It’s always good to get some different views on the markets, the 7 minute video below takes a quick look at the key markets for 2018.
thumb_up up Eurozone stocks seems to get a thumbs up, particularly the Spain 35 and Italy 40.
info The FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 also have some potential, albeit for differing reasons.
warning The risk-reward ratio for US stocks isn’t great. US equities have the “potential for sizeable correction”.
9 January 2018: Crude Oil to Reach $75 in 2018?video_label We’ve added a useful 7 minute video looking at the crude oil market for 2018.
If you’re interested in the oil market, this is a good summary and worth a watch (and there’s not much waffle either).
The video is on our crude oil spread betting guide.
Bitcoin “Consolidating” at $15,000?Nothing is ever clear in the Bitcoin market but are we seeing some kind of consolidation around $15,000?
We might be seeing a Bitcoin support / resistance levels (read more).
Also see “Is this the Least Stupid Way to Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin & Ethereum?“.
8 January 2018: New Year, Same Volatility for BitcoinIn case you missed it… Bitcoin did get back up to the $17,000 mark on Sunday.
It’s now back down to $15,000.
warning Extreme volatility continues to plague the market, see real-time Bitcoin chart.
WTF? What $1,000 Minimum First Time Deposit?We’ve received an email from eToro saying:
We are raising the minimum first time deposit to $1,000.I don’t get that.
This is to ensure speedier processing of deposit requests and to keep the services we provide at an optimal level.
Normal minimum deposits are around £100, euro100 or $100 e.g. with City Index, CMC, ETX, Financial Spreads, IG, InterTrader, Spreadex, Tradefair etc.
I know payments are a pain for the spread betting and CFD companies but most payments are automatic…
If you want to keep out the riff-raff like me, start with raising it to £250 or $250.
If you still have issues after that then you’re doing something else wrong.
4 January 2018: Bitcoin Back Up 35%!trending_up Since the low of $10,692 on 22 December the market has bounced back to $14,500… that’s a cheeky 35% bounce.
info It looks like the market is currently using $10,000 and $20,000 as very rough support and resistance levels.
warning Trading remains highly volatile. Only trade with money you are happy to lose.
For more on this, see our Bitcoin spread betting update.
4 January 2018: New US Dollar Index Trade Ideavideo_label We’ve added a new 5 minute on US dollar index ahead of tomorrow’s NFP.
See our US Dollar Index spread betting guide.
27 December 2017: Fear Factors & Trading in 2018It’s that quiet bit between Christmas and New Year so here’s a useful 10 minute video that looks at the bigger picture for 2018.
There’s not too much waffle and does look at some interesting data:
21 December 2017: Italy 40 Ready to Drop?trending_down The Italian stock market looks like it could in a classic Head and Shoulders pattern.
We’ve added a 5 minute video looking this, see our Italy 40 spread betting guide.
20 December 2017: Bitcoin in Bear Market (Technically)warning Bitcoin has dropped 20% and technically that puts it in a bear market.
Although, as we say in our Bitcoin spread betting and trading guide, Bitcoin has its own bizarre rules…
A 20% drop for Bitcoin probably isn’t a bear market.warning Cryptocurrency trading remains highly volatile.
A 20% drop probably isn’t even a “correction” it may only be a “dip”.
Reform Cuts Seem a Little One-sided…
19 December 2017: Christmas TreatIn celebration of the new Star Wars film, The Last Jedi, and that fact that the markets are a bit quiet this morning… we thought we’d put up this classic.
8 minutes of “Snatch Wars” (Snatch Vs Star Wars).
Is this why the internet was created? We hope so.
warning Lots of funny / puerile adult language
16 December 2017: US Tax
Reform Cuts Get Closer
15 December 2017: A New Warning on Bitcoinwarning It’s good to see the FCA trying to get message out about the risks of “Investing” in Bitcoin.
In an interview on Newsnight, Andrew Bailey, Head of the FCA, came out with a pretty clear view:
If you want to invest in Bitcoin be prepared to lose your money – that would be my serious warningSee more warnings and trading facts on our Bitcoin blog.
14 December 2017: The Fed Hikes & Dollar Falls
This week’s Fed meeting went as planned with the 0.25% rate hike but the dollar didn’t like the Fed’s uncommitted view.
See Live EUR/USD chart.
13 December 2017: New Trading Videos (with Technical Analysis)We’ve added 2 new videos:
video_label a 13 minute video taking a longer look at the US dollar. The video concentrates on the US dollar index, USD/JPY and gold – see trading the US dollar in 2018.
video_label 4 minutes of technical analysis on the HK50 – see is the Kong Kong Hang Seng on course to hit 30,000?
FOMC Meetings Create “Expected” VolatilitywarningIf you have open positions heading into tonight’s Fed announcements (see below) – then don’t forget that, after the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls, it’s the FOMC meetings that normally produce the most “expected” volatility.
I know we are crying out for more market volatility but, just like the NFP, these short-term spikes can hurt.
You have been warned.
Comedy Currency Trading!warningTalking of volatile trading, the comedy currency that is Bitcoin continues to have intraday $1,000 – $1,500 swings!
If you combine these swings with spread betting or CFD trading you will get hurt very quickly and it will be really painful.
Or… as I like to say:
Combining ultra volatile markets with leveraged trading is like drinking and driving… it is only a matter of time before a something really really bad happens.Did I just quote myself? Yes, sorry. I just wanted to make sure that stood out.
If you really want to jump on the bubble that is Bitcoin, see:
What? An Alabama Election to Move the Spread Betting Markets?
The Moore the Merrier? Not This Time
It looks like the hideous Roy Moore has lost the race for the Alabama Senate seat that was up for grabs.
There are a lot of unpleasant allegations about Roy Moore but I don’t agree with trail by internet.
… however, we can judge him by his own words, see the Moore the Merrier? Not This Time.
Looking at the markets though, this unexpected victory also points at how unpopular Trump is.
Crucially, losing a Senate seat makes things far more tricky for Trump and the Republican agenda.
See why the Alabama State election is important for the spread betting markets.
12 December 2017: Bitcoin’s Extreme Electricity Usage – Another Reason the Market Could Crashwarning We’ve added a new video that’s acts as a nice health warning for anyone looking to trade the cryptocurrency.
At the moment Bitcoin miners are using as much electricity as Nigeria (90m people).
Before long miners will be using as much as electricity as Japan
See Bitcoin Market Manipulation, Electricity Usage and Why Bitcoin Could Crash.
11 December 2017: Is the Santa Rally About to Kick Off?Below, a quick 4 minute video looking at the Santa rally that often boosts the FTSE 100.
lightbulb_outline Taking 30 years of data… the FTSE 100 rallies an average of about 2% rally from mid-December to the end of the month.
With the FTSE 100 above 7,450 a 2% increase would take it to/above the all-time highs aroud 7,556.
Bubble Trading – You Shouldn’t But If You Really Really Must…There might be a semi-convenient way of buying / holding / selling Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum.
It’s not advisable to trade such volatile markets when they are in such clear bubbles but if you really really must…
info Revolut has added cryptocurrency exchange.
This might be one of the least stupid ways to invest:
thumb_up The exchange is just an exchange, it’s not leveraged. If you deposit £200 and convert it into Bitcoin… then, when the bubble bursts you’ll only lose your £200.
thumb_up You won’t get stopped out in highly volatile swings.
thumb_up Revolut is FCA regulated and so this gives you more security over your deposits.
For more see our article – Is this the Least Stupid Way to Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin & Ethereum?
11 December 2017: There’s a Lot of Economic Data this WeekToday could be quiet but come Tuesday, the markets could still be quite lively.
Below a 10 minute look at how things could unfold with updates from the Fed, BoE & ECB.
There’s UK and US inflation updates, new wage growth data and naturally these feed into the forex markets.
If you skip to 6 minutes, there’s some quick technical analysis on how the new data could impact the markets.
8 December 2017: It’s a Busy Few Days for Bitcoinstrending_uptrending_downtrending_up It’s hits $17,000 in yet more erratic trading.
warningwarning Overnight the cryptocurrency jumped to $17,000 before dropped back to $14,000.
According to David Madden, Market Analyst, CMC Markets:
The cryptocurrency is seeing tremendous volatility, but the upward is still in place for now.
And…warning $80m Stolen worth of Bitcoin was stolen from a mining service.
7 December 2017: A Few Trading Warnings and… One Spread Betting Idea!We have updates on:
warning Bitcoin as it hits $14,000 – see Bitcoin spread betting update.
warning US crude oil production is at record levels – see crude oil spread betting update.
lightbulb_outline and… a new Channel Trading (Range Trading) idea. This is one to watch.
4 December 2018: Trump Tax Plan Gets Closer
3 December 2018: Technical Levels for the Week AheadBelow, a useful 8 minute video taking a look at the coming week with a quick technical look at the Dow Jones, FTSE 100, Japan 225, USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, crude oil and gold.
It’s a New Month – Don’t Forget Your RebatesA few firms like InterTrader and Financial Spreads have monthly spread betting, CFD and forex rebates.
It’s worth checking them out if you trade a lot (or trade semi-frequently with +£5/pt trades)
If you don’t trade much, or trade with smaller trade sizes like £1/pt, then you’re unlikely to get much from a rebate.
There’s full rundown in our spread betting, CFD and forex rebates guide.
1 December 2017: Yep, the Leader of the Free World is Still a Daft RacistI’m not a massive fan of The Mirror but they’ve got their reporting right on this one.
Donald Trump has retweeted three racist tweets by Britain First and then managed to have a public spat with Theresa May.
And Don’t Forget…
Also see Donald Trump videos.
For more, please see Dear Spread Betting Diary.
What’s New on SpreadBetMagazine?We have worked for the spread betting companies in the past. We spread bet. We trade CFDs. We have seen much of what goes on, both good and bad.
Hopefully we can cover some industry gossip too (even when it irritates our advertisers).
Our aim with Spread Bets Magazine is to:
A Wee Disclaimer and Possible Conflict of InterestWe provide this site for free and rely primarily on advertising revenues for our funding.
Readers should assume that we could well have commercial relationships with the various brokers, third parties, writers etc. on SpreadBetMagazine.com.
We do our best to be impartial but if you think we’re not being impartial please contact us or, better still, if you think a broker review is unfair or their service has changed for the worse etc. please add a comment on that review.
The more user comments we have on the broker review pages the more balanced the reviews will be.